AndyScoggin’s Derby Top 10 (v.3)

The only graded prep race last weekend was the seven furlong (G2) Hutcheson, at Gulfstream, which was won impressively by Thunder Moccasin. Todd Pletcher said that this sophomore runner would stay racing around one turn, so at this point I am not including him in the rankings. Fed Biz makes his first appearance in the Top 10.  Hansen has dropped out of the list since his connections decided to dodge the Florida competition because he missed some training due to illness.

The descriptions include possible next start for each horse and a career summary of starts with results, total earnings and graded stake earnings with the rank amongst Derby contenders.  Currently $120,000 is required to make the top 20 of graded earnings, as there are three horses tied in the 18th position.  Added this week is the closing odds from Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1 wagering.

1) Union Rags – Last week ranked 1.

Career – 4:3-1-0 $858,800 (2nd $830,000)

7-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Fountain of Youth (G2) Feb. 26

Union Rags has worked three times adding 5F in 1:03 with the final furlong in :11-3 on Feb. 13.  The clockers said that this was the best he has looked since resuming training. He also worked 4F in :48.67 with his prior breeze of 5F in 1:02.74. All training happened at Palm Meadows.

2) Algorithms – Last week ranked 2.

Career – 3: 3-3-0-0 $301,500 (9th $240,000)

12-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Fountain of Youth (G2) Feb. 26

Algorithms is back on the work trail with 4F in :49.20 at Palm Meadows.  His win in the Holy Bull (G3) was fast and impressive and earned a 98 BSF and as a math teacher I love his name.  Algorithm means “set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations”.

3) Out of Bounds – Last week ranked 3.

Career – 3: 2-0-0, $89,700 (34th $60,000).

23-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10

Out of Bounds, a Discreet Cat colt, worked 6F in 1:13.4 at Hollywood Park on Feb. 13.  The winner of the Sham (G3) got an impressive 99 BSF in his second start.  This big long legged colt should relish the Derby distance.

4) Creative Cause – Last week ranked 4.

Career – 5: 3-1-1 $521,000 (5th $488,000).

17-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

San Vicente (G2) on Feb. 19

Feb. 12 Creative Cause blazed a 6F work at Hollywood in 1:11.4 on top of his 6F breeze on Feb. 4 in 1:13.80. As a two year-old he won the Norfolk (G1) at Santa Anita and the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar.  The Best Pal win looks even better after second place finisher I’ll Have Another ran away with the Lewis (G2) on Saturday.

5) I’ll Have Another – Last week ranked 5.

Career – 4: 2-1-0 $184,000 (14th $151,000)

29-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Santa Anita Derby (G1) April 7

The Flower Alley colt won the Lewis (G2) on Saturday with a wide sweeping move on the turn.  He drew off in the stretch to an easy victory that earned a 96 BSF.

6) El Padrino – Last week ranked 6

Career – 4: 2-1-1, $86,100 ($12,000)

16-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Risen Star (G2) Feb. 25

El Padrino has also resumed serious work going 4F in :48.28 at Palm Meadows. His name translates to “The Godfather”.  He earned a 100 BSF in his allowance win at Gulfstream. This Pletcher runner will have no trouble getting the Derby distance.

7) Discreet Dancer – Last week ranked 7

Career – 2: 2-0-0, $57,500 ($0)

30-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Fountain of Youth (G2) Feb. 26

Discreet Dancer worked well on Feb. 13 covering 5F in 1:00.90 at Palm Meadows. He won his debut at Gulfstream as a two year-old, setting a new track record for 5.5 furlongs in 1:02.34. This Discreet Cat colt is another talented Pletcher trainee that has won both of his starts.

8) Alpha – Last week ranked 8.

Career – 5: 3-1-0 $300,000 (11th $180,000).

19-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Wood Memorial (G1) April 7.

The win in the Withers (G3) saw Alpha’s BSFs go from 85 to 90.  Team McLaughlin/Godolphin has decided that the Wood Memorial (G1) will be next for Alpha, so they will ship him to Florida to train at Palm Meadows.

9) Gemologist – Last week ranked 9.

Career – 3:3-0-0 $145,855 (20th $103,855)

22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

Tampa Bay Derby (G2) Mar. 10 or Rebel (G2) Mar. 17

Gemologist has added a second work. This time he went 4F in :49.77 to add to his first workout, :39.88 for 3F at Palm Meadows.  The Pletcher trainee won the Kentucky Jockey Cup (G2) beating the Jonathan Sheppard horse, Ever So Lucky.

10) Fed Biz – Last week unranked.

Career – 3: 2-0-0 $71,100 ($0)

21-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1

On Feb. 9, Fed Biz impressed the crowd at Santa Anita with a speedy one mile allowance victory in 1:34.74.  In the winner’s circle jockey Rafael Bejarano declared that, “That is my Derby horse buddy”.  Fed Biz was a $950,000 Keeneland yearling purchase that is trained by Bob Baffert.

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About andyscoggin

Matt Shifman, the man behind AndyScoggin, is a featured blogger covering NYRA and Monmouth Park for HorseRacingNation.com. "Racing at the Jersey Shore" covers the racing scene at Monmouth Park and "A New York State of Racing" will discuss NYRA. Matt votes for the Top 10 Thoroughbreds in the NTRA Polls at www.NTRA/polls.
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