AndyScoggin’s Derby Top 10 (v.4)

This past weekend’s major prep races were the Risen Star (G2) on Saturday at FG and the Fountain of Youth (G2) at GP on Sunday.  El Padrino won the impressive stretch duel with Mark Valeski in the Risen Star, while Union Rags ran the most impressive race by a three year-old in 2012, off his Breeders’ Cup layoff.

The descriptions include their last start and possible next start for each horse and a career summary of starts with results, total earnings and graded stake earnings with the rank amongst Derby contenders.  Currently $120,000 is required to make the top 20 of graded earnings.

1)  Union Rags – Last week ranked 1.

  • Career – 5:4-1-0 $1,098,800 (2nd $1,070,000)
  • Michael Matz/Julien Leparoux
  • 7-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 1st GP Fountain of Youth (G2) Feb. 26, 2012 – BSF 95
  • Florida Derby (G1) March 31

Could Union Rags have been any more impressive in his return off the Breeders’ Cup layoff?  Jockey Julien Leparoux rode him with the utmost confidence.  We now have an overwhelming Derby favorite. Did he make the 7-1 odds from Future Pool 1 look like a good bet? There is still two long months until the Derby and lots can happen.

2)  Out of Bounds – Last week ranked 3.

  • Career – 3: 2-0-0, $89,700 (43rd $60,000)
  • Eion Harty/Garrett Gomez
  • 23-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 1st SA Sham (G3) Jan. 7, 2012 – BSF 99
  • San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10

Out of Bounds, a Discreet Cat colt, worked 5F in :59-4 at Hollywood Park on Feb. 20.  The winner of the Sham (G3) got an impressive 99 BSF in his second start. This big long legged colt should relish the Derby distance.

3) El Padrino – Last week ranked 6.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-1, $266,100 (11th $200,000)
  • Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
  • 16-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 1st FG Risen Star (G2) Feb. 25, 2012 – BSF 98
  • Louisiana Derby (G2) April 1

The Godfather prevailed in a head to head battle with Mark Valeski in the Risen Star.  His last two races have had impressive BSFs of 100 and 98.

4) I’ll Have Another – Last week ranked 5.

  • Career – 4: 2-1-0 $184,000 (16th $151,000)
  • Doug O’Neill/M. Gutierrez
  • 29-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 1st SA Robert Lewis (G2) Feb. 4, 2012 – BSF 96
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) April 7

The Flower Alley colt won the Lewis (G2) on Saturday with a wide sweeping move on the turn.  He drew off in the stretch to an easy victory that earned a 96 BSF.

5) Fed Biz – Last week ranked 10.

  • Career – 3: 2-0-0 $71,100 ($0)
  • Bob Baffert/Rafael Bejarano
  • 21-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 1st SA Allowance Feb. 9, 2012 – BSF 97
  • San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10 or Rebel (G2) Mar. 17

On Feb. 9, Fed Biz impressed the crowd at Santa Anita with a speedy one mile allowance victory in 1:34.74.  In the winner’s circle jockey Rafael Bejarano declared that, “That is my Derby horse buddy”.  Fed Biz was a $950,000 Keeneland yearling purchase that is trained by Bob Baffert.

6) Alpha – Last week ranked 8.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-0 $300,000 (12th $180,000).
  • Kiaran McLaughlin/Ramon Dominguez
  • 19-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 1st AQU Withers (G3) Feb. 4, 2012 – BSF 90
  • Wood Memorial (G1) April 7.

The win in the Withers (G3) saw Alpha’s BSFs go from 85 to 90.  Team McLaughlin/Godolphin has decided that the Wood Memorial (G1) will be next for Alpha.  Back in hard training, he went 4F in :49-3 at Palm Meadows.

7) Gemologist – Last week ranked 9.

  • Career – 3:3-0-0 $145,855 (25th $103,855)
  • Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
  • 22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 1st TP Kentucky Jockey Cup (G2) Nov. 21, 2011 – BSF 85
  • Tampa Bay Derby (G2) Mar. 10 or Rebel (G2) Mar. 17

Workouts are cranking up for Gemologist as he trained 5F in 1:00-4 in company with probable Gotham starter Dan and Sheila. The Pletcher trainee won the Kentucky Jockey Cup (G2) beating the Jonathan Sheppard horse, Ever So Lucky.

8) Sabercat – Last week unranked.

  • Career – 6:3-0-1 $681,420 (3rd $600,000)
  • Steve Asmussen/TBA
  • 34-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 1st Ded Delta Jackpot (G3) – BSF 85
  • San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10

Workouts have become more serious for this Asmussen trainee.  He went 5F in 1:00-4 at Santa Anita on Feb. 26th.

9) Hansen – Last week unranked.

  • Career – 4: 3-1-0 $1,233,305 (1st $1,160,000).
  • Michael Maker/Ramon Dominguez
  • 26-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 2nd GP Holy Bull (G2) Jan. 29, 2012 – BSF 96
  • Gotham (G3) – Mar. 3

Hansen has been training well recently since his second place finish in the Holy Bull (G2).  Others have fallen out of the Top 10 so Hansen is back pending his performance in the Gotham (G3).

10) Creative Cause – Last week ranked 4.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-1 $521,000 (5th $506,000).
  • Mike Harrington/Joel Rosario
  • 17-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 3rd SA San Vicente (G2) Feb. 19, 2012 – BSF 92
  • San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10 or Rebel (G2) Mar. 17

His third place in the San Vicente has received mixed reviews.  He did run the final 3/8ths in :35.35.

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About andyscoggin

Matt Shifman, the man behind AndyScoggin, is a featured blogger covering NYRA and Monmouth Park for HorseRacingNation.com. "Racing at the Jersey Shore" covers the racing scene at Monmouth Park and "A New York State of Racing" will discuss NYRA. Matt votes for the Top 10 Thoroughbreds in the NTRA Polls at www.NTRA/polls.
This entry was posted in Aqueduct, Breeders Cup, Kentucky Derby. Bookmark the permalink.

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