AndyScoggin’s Derby Top 10 (v.5)

This past weekend’s major prep race was the (G3) Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.  That was the first 2012 Derby prep race that I got to attend. What a treat to see Hansen make a huge statement that he is a major Derby contender. There is a link to my Gotham coverage in Hansen’s description.

Out of Bounds was injured on Monday morning Mar. 5 during at 5F workout that was timed in :59.2. The ankle injury will require surgery but is not career ending.

The descriptions include their last start (with a YouTube link if available) and possible next start for each horse and a career summary of starts with results, total earnings and graded stake earnings with the rank amongst Derby contenders.  You will also find the closing odds from the Kentucky Derby Future pools 1 and 2.  According to http://www.horseracingnation.com/ $145,558 is currently required to make the top 20 of graded earnings.

1) Union Rags – Last week ranked 1.

  • Career – 5:4-1-0 $1,098,800 (2nd $1,070,000)
  • Michael Matz/Julien Leparoux
  • 7-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 4-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st GP Fountain of Youth (G2) Feb. 26, 2012 – BSF 95
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye6ux-TTkjg
  • Florida Derby (G1) March 31

Could Union Rags have been any more impressive in his return off the Breeders’ Cup layoff?  Jockey Julien Leparoux rode him with the utmost confidence.  We now have an overwhelming Derby favorite. Did he make the 7-1 odds from Future Pool 1 look like a good bet? There is still two long months until the Derby and lots can happen.

2) Hansen – Last week ranked 9.

  • Career – 5: 4-1-0 $1,473,305 (1st $1,400,000).
  • Michael Maker/Ramon Dominguez
  • 26-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 9-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st Gotham Stakes (G3) Mar. 3, 2012 – BSF 95
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPkNjsEDR78
  • Wood Memorial (G1) – April 7

Please read my recap of the Gotham that ran on http://www.horseracingnation.com

3) El Padrino – Last week ranked 3.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-1, $266,100 (12th $200,000)
  • Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
  • 16-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 12-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st FG Risen Star (G2) Feb. 25, 2012 – BSF 98
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7X_twEcYvM
  • Louisiana Derby (G2) April 1

The Godfather prevailed in a head to head battle with Mark Valeski in the Risen Star.  His last two races have had impressive BSFs of 100 and 98.

4) I’ll Have Another – Last week ranked 4.

  • Career – 4: 2-1-0 $184,000 (167h $151,000)
  • Doug O’Neill/M. Gutierrez
  • 29-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st SA Robert Lewis (G2) Feb. 4, 2012 – BSF 96
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEmuTouH6Y0
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) April 7

I’ll Have Another had a public 6F workout (:24, :47, :58-1, 1:10) at Santa Anita after the seventh race on Saturday. He was accompanied by Lava Man, a winner $5.2 million in his career and the Santa Anita Derby in 2006 and 2007. Lava Man now serves as trainer Doug O’Neill’s pony.

5) Fed Biz – Last week ranked 5.

  • Career – 3: 2-0-0 $71,100 ($0)
  • Bob Baffert/Rafael Bejarano
  • 21-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st SA Allowance Feb. 9, 2012 – BSF 97
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpOqqlyA7K4
  • San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10 or Rebel (G2) Mar. 17

On Feb. 29, Fed Biz worked 6F in 1:13.40 at Santa Anita.  He impressed the crowd at Santa Anita with a speedy one mile allowance victory in 1:34.74.  In the winner’s circle jockey Rafael Bejarano declared that, “That is my Derby horse buddy”.  Fed Biz was a $950,000 Keeneland yearling purchase that is trained by Bob Baffert.

6) Alpha – Last week ranked 6.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-0 $300,000 (13th $180,000).
  • Kiaran McLaughlin/Ramon Dominguez
  • 19-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 18-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st AQU Withers (G3) Feb. 4, 2012 – BSF 90
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTgi0UgxccY
  • Wood Memorial (G1) April 7.

The win in the Withers (G3) saw Alpha’s BSFs go from 85 to 90.  Team McLaughlin/Godolphin has decided that the Wood Memorial (G1) will be next for Alpha.  Back in hard training, he went 4F in :49-3 at Palm Meadows.

7) Gemologist – Last week ranked 7.

  • Career – 3:3-0-0 $145,855 (28th $103,855)
  • Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
  • 22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 23-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st TP Kentucky Jockey Cup (G2) Nov. 21, 2011 – BSF 85
  • Tampa Bay Derby (G2) Mar. 10 or Rebel (G2) Mar. 17

Workouts are cranking up for Gemologist as he trained 5F in 1:00-4 in company with probable Gotham starter Dan and Sheila. The Pletcher trainee won the Kentucky Jockey Cup (G2) beating the Jonathan Sheppard horse, Ever So Lucky.

8) Sabercat – Last week 8.

  • Career – 6:3-0-1 $681,420 (3rd $600,000)
  • Steve Asmussen/TBA
  • 34-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 30-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st Ded Delta Jackpot (G3) – BSF 85
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glVYcg_Ghwc
  • Rebel (G2) Mar. 17

A last minute change has Sabercat now pointing to the Rebel (G2). In preparation he worked 6F at Santa Anita in 1:12.60.

9) Creative Cause – Last week ranked 10.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-1 $521,000 (5th $518,000).
  • Mike Harrington/Joel Rosario
  • 17-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 17-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 3rd SA San Vicente (G2) Feb. 19, 2012 – BSF 92
  • San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10 or Rebel (G2) Mar. 17

On Feb. 28 Creative Cause worked 6F at Hollywood Park in 1:11.80.

10) My Adonis – Last week unranked

  • Career – 8: 2-4-1 $301,000 (21st $130,000)
  • Kelly Breen/Elvis Trujillo
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 2nd Gotham Stakes (G3) Mar. 3,2012
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPkNjsEDR78
  • Wood Memorial (G1) April 7

My Adonis is the veteran of this Derby Top 10 with eight starts.  His most recent race was a strong second place finish to Hansen in the Gotham (G3).

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About andyscoggin

Matt Shifman, the man behind AndyScoggin, is a featured blogger covering NYRA and Monmouth Park for HorseRacingNation.com. "Racing at the Jersey Shore" covers the racing scene at Monmouth Park and "A New York State of Racing" will discuss NYRA. Matt votes for the Top 10 Thoroughbreds in the NTRA Polls at www.NTRA/polls.
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