AndyScoggin’s Derby Top 10 (v.6)

The descriptions include their last start (with a YouTube link if available) and possible next start for each horse and a career summary of starts with results, total earnings and graded stake earnings with the rank amongst Derby contenders.  You will also find the closing odds from the Kentucky Derby Future pools 1 and 2.  According to www.HorseRacingNation.com $145,558 is currently required to make the top 20 of graded earnings.

1) Union Rags – Last week ranked 1.

  • Career – 5:4-1-0 $1,098,800 (2nd $1,070,000)
  • Michael Matz/Julien Leparoux
  • 7-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 4-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st GP Fountain of Youth (G2) Feb. 26, 2012 – BSF 95
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye6ux-TTkjg
  • Florida Derby (G1) March 31.

2) Hansen – Last week ranked 2.

  • Career – 5: 4-1-0 $1,473,305 (1st $1,400,000).
  • Michael Maker/Ramon Dominguez
  • 26-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 9-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st Gotham Stakes (G3) Mar. 3, 2012 – BSF 95
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPkNjsEDR78
  • Wood Memorial (G1) – April 7.

Please read my recap of the Gotham that ran on http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/NYState/Hansen_Makes_a_Statement_in_the_G3_Gotham_Stakes_123

3) Creative Cause – Last week ranked 9.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-1 $701,000 (3rd $686,000).
  • Mike Harrington/Joel Rosario
  • 17-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 17-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10, 2012 – BSF 102
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvQ66XW4WVw
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) Apr. 7.

Creative Cause came up with a great performance in the San Felipe beating a pretty good field, although he did race a bit greenly down the stretch.  That does leave room for improvement.

4) El Padrino – Last week ranked 3.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-1, $266,100 (11th $200,000)
  • Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
  • 16-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 12-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st FG Risen Star (G2) Feb. 25, 2012 – BSF 98
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7X_twEcYvM
  • Louisiana Derby (G2) April 1.

5) I’ll Have Another – Last week ranked 4.

  • Career – 4: 2-1-0 $184,000 (15th $151,000)
  • Doug O’Neill/M. Gutierrez
  • 29-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st SA Robert Lewis (G2) Feb. 4, 2012 – BSF 96
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J71FYwwlm8
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) April 7.

6) Alpha – Last week ranked 6.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-0 $300,000 (12th $180,000).
  • Kiaran McLaughlin/Ramon Dominguez
  • 19-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 18-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st AQU Withers (G3) Feb. 4, 2012 – BSF 90
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTgi0UgxccY
  • Wood Memorial (G1) April 7.

7) Prospective Last week unranked.

  • Career – 7: 4-2-0 $411,357 (8th $365,452)
  • Mark Casse/Luis Contreras
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st Tampa Bay Derby (G2) Mar. 10, 2012 – BSF 88
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSt3zOXbSXk
  • Wood Memorial (G1) April 7.

Prospective racing with blinkers made a strong move on the final turn and then held off the run of Golden Ticket to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). His experience of seven starts is a big plus.

8) Bodemeister Last week unranked.

  • Career – 3:1-2-0 $104,800 (41st $60,000)
  • Bob Baffert/Rafael Bejarano
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 29-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 2nd San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10, 2012
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvQ66XW4WVw
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) April 7.

Bodemeister ran an excellent race in the San Felipe (G2). In only his third career start he was a bit green in his stretch battle with Creative Cause. He should improve with Baffert’s tutelage.

9) Gemologist – Last week ranked 7.

  • Career – 3:3-0-0 $145,855 (27th $103,855)
  • Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
  • 22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 23-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st TP Kentucky Jockey Cup (G2) Nov. 21, 2011 – BSF 85
  • Allowance GP Mar. 16 race 3.

The switch from The Rebel (G2) to an allowance at GP raises a lot of questions about his readiness.

10) Sabercat – Last week 8.

  • Career – 6:3-0-1 $681,420 (4th $600,000)
  • Steve Asmussen/Corey Nakatani
  • 34-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 30-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st Ded Delta Jackpot (G3) – BSF 85
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glVYcg_Ghwc
  • Rebel (G2) Mar. 17
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About andyscoggin

Matt Shifman, the man behind AndyScoggin, is a featured blogger covering NYRA and Monmouth Park for HorseRacingNation.com. "Racing at the Jersey Shore" covers the racing scene at Monmouth Park and "A New York State of Racing" will discuss NYRA. Matt votes for the Top 10 Thoroughbreds in the NTRA Polls at www.NTRA/polls.
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