AndyScoggin’s Derby Top 10 (v.7)

The descriptions include each horse’s last start (with a YouTube link if available) and possible next start for each horse and a career summary of starts with results, total earnings and graded stake earnings with the rank amongst Derby contenders.  You will also find the closing odds from the Kentucky Derby Future pools 1 and 2.  According to www.HorseRacingNation.com $150,000 is currently required to make the top 20 of graded earnings.

1) Union Rags – Last week ranked 1.

  • Career – 5:4-1-0 $1,098,800 (2nd $1,070,000)
  • Michael Matz/Julien Leparoux
  • 7-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 4-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st GP Fountain of Youth (G2) Feb. 26, 2012 – BSF 95
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye6ux-TTkjg
  • Florida Derby (G1) March 31.

2) Hansen – Last week ranked 2.

  • Career – 5: 4-1-0 $1,473,305 (1st $1,400,000).
  • Michael Maker/Ramon Dominguez
  • 26-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 9-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st Gotham Stakes (G3) Mar. 3, 2012 – BSF 95
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPkNjsEDR78
  • Wood Memorial (G1) – April 7.

Please read my recap of the Gotham that ran on http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/NYState/Hansen_Makes_a_Statement_in_the_G3_Gotham_Stakes_123

3) Creative Cause – Last week ranked 9.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-1 $701,000 (3rd $686,000).
  • Mike Harrington/Joel Rosario
  • 17-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 17-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10, 2012 – BSF 102
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvQ66XW4WVw
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) Apr. 7.

Creative Cause came up with a great performance in the San Felipe beating a pretty good field, although he did race a bit greenly down the stretch.  That does leave room for improvement.

4) El Padrino – Last week ranked 3.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-1, $266,100 (13th $200,000)
  • Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
  • 16-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 12-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st FG Risen Star (G2) Feb. 25, 2012 – BSF 98
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7X_twEcYvM
  • Florida Derby (G1) March 31.

5) I’ll Have Another – Last week ranked 4.

  • Career – 4: 2-1-0 $184,000 (18th $151,000)
  • Doug O’Neill/M. Gutierrez
  • 29-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st SA Robert Lewis (G2) Feb. 4, 2012 – BSF 96
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J71FYwwlm8
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) April 7.

6) Gemologist – Last week ranked 9.

  • Career – 3:3-0-0 $145,855 (30th $103,855)
  • Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano
  • 22-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 23-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st Allowance GP Mar. 16 race 3. – BSF  95
  • Wood Memorial (G1) – April 7.

Gemologist pulled away impressively to defeat Currency Swap, the winner of last year’s Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga. His BSF showed an increase of 10 from his last start as a two year-old. WinStar was so impressed that they are now aiming for the Wood Memorial (G1).

7) Optimizer – Last week unranked.

  • Career – 8:1-2-1 $212,216 (14th $181,375)
  • D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 2nd Rebel (G2) – March 17, 2012
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsTKAVuTbY4
  • Arkansas Derby (G1) – April 14.

Optimizer finished the Rebel (G2) with a very strong closing move. He looked like he was going easily at the end and having fun at the same time. There has been much talk that Optimizer did not change leads down the stretch, even so, here is a three year-old that looks like he will handle the Derby distance.

8) Alpha – Last week ranked 6.

  • Career – 5: 3-1-0 $300,000 (15th $180,000).
  • Kiaran McLaughlin/Ramon Dominguez
  • 19-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 18-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st AQU Withers (G3) Feb. 4, 2012 – BSF 90
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTgi0UgxccY
  • Louisana Derby – April 1.

There appears to be a change of plans with Alpha now pointing to the Louisiana Derby (G2).

9) Prospective Last week ranked 7.

  • Career – 7: 4-2-0 $411,357 (9th $365,452)
  • Mark Casse/Luis Contreras
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 1st Tampa Bay Derby (G2) Mar. 10, 2012 – BSF 88
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSt3zOXbSXk
  • Wood Memorial (G1) – April 7.

Prospective racing with blinkers made a strong move on the final turn and then held off the run of Golden Ticket to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). His experience of seven starts is a big plus.

10) Bodemeister Last week ranked 8.

  • Career – 3:1-2-0 $104,800 (50th $60,000)
  • Bob Baffert/Rafael Bejarano
  • Mutuel Field Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1
  • 29-1 Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2
  • 2nd San Felipe (G2) Mar. 10, 2012
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvQ66XW4WVw
  • Santa Anita Derby (G1) April 7.

Bodemeister ran an excellent race in the San Felipe (G2). In only his third career start he was a bit green in his stretch battle with Creative Cause. He should improve with Baffert’s tutelage.

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About andyscoggin

Matt Shifman, the man behind AndyScoggin, is a featured blogger covering NYRA and Monmouth Park for HorseRacingNation.com. "Racing at the Jersey Shore" covers the racing scene at Monmouth Park and "A New York State of Racing" will discuss NYRA. Matt votes for the Top 10 Thoroughbreds in the NTRA Polls at www.NTRA/polls.
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