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Happy Thanksgiving
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Fall Highweight Handicap – Past and Present
Here is an article that has just been posted at HorseRacingNation.com about the Fall Highweight Handicap that is run on Thanksgiving at Aqueduct.
The Fall Highweight Handicap was run at Belmont Park from 1914 to 1959 and then again from 1963 to 1993. Otherwise the race has been run at Aqueduct. Initially the race was open to all horses, but in 1959, the Fall Highweight became restricted to three year-olds and upward. That inaugural running of the handicap had a two year-old filly, Comely win while carrying only 110 pounds.
According to the NYRA condition book, “The Racing Secretary must assign at least 140 pounds to the top-weighted horse in this event.” Of course that does not mean the top-weight will actually enter the starting gate. Click here to read the rest at Horseracingnation.com.
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Rapid Redux Goes for the Modern Era Record Tonight
Tonight Rapid Redux looks to break the modern era record for consecutive wins. We say “modern era” as if we are putting an asterisk next Rapid Redux’s streak. The chart shows where Rapid Redux fits in the all-time consecutive win streaks.
The Daily Racing Form will be streaming RR’s race tonight at drf.com. Post time for race 8 is 9:55 pm ET. There are already three scratches leaving the field with seven horses. Rapid Redux is listed as the 1-9 morning line favorite.
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Here are the Facts from Rapid Redux’s Winning Streak
photo from Laurel Race Track video feed
Rapid Redux now shares the modern era record of 19 consecutive wins with Peppers Pride and Zenyatta. Rapid Redux took 10 months and 25 days to win 19 in a row. Zenyatta needed 2 years, 11 months, and 10 days to get to 19 victories. Peppers Pride reached the 19 wins in 3 years, 4 months, and 29 days.
Of Zenyatta’s 19 victories 17 came in grade one or grade two stakes and she earned $7,304,580 in her career. Peppers Pride won 14 New Mexico-bred stakes races and $1,066,085. Rapid Redux ran in the Tyro at Monmouth Park as a two year-old and the Long Brach at three and he finished last in both. He has career earnings of $332,544.
Here are some interesting facts from the 19 races in Rapid Redux’s streak.
•Rapid Redux was the favorite in 16 out of 19 races. In the past 13 he was under even money with the highest being .60-1. In his first victory in the steak the odds were 5.20-1.
•The closest win margin was by a nose at Penn National on 29Mar11 giving him victory number 8.
•The largest win margin was 10.75 lengths at Mountaineer 6May 11 on a good sealed track for his 11th win.
•His highest Beyer Speed Figure of 92 occurred at Charles Town in an Alw28000N1M run 20Jan11 for win number 4.
•The lowest BSF of 67 happened at Thistledown in an Alw5000s on 15Jly11 during win number 15.
•His 19 starts have happened at seven different tracks: five at Penn National, three at Mountaineer, four at Charles Town, four at Laurel, one at Parx, one at Thistledown, and one at Timonium.
•Rapid Redux has won at seven different distances: once at five furlongs, twice going six panels, three times at seven furlongs, four wins happened at a flat mile, one at a mile and 70 yards, four running a mile and a sixteenth, and four at 9 furlongs.
•In his last 14 races Rapid Redux was only behind once when he was third by a neck at the first call at Thistledown on 15Jul11.
•Rapid Redux ran his first 12 races for George and Lori Hall, owners of Ruler On Ice and Pants On Fire, and trainer Kelly Breen. 12: 3-1-1
•Rapid Redux has had 4 different trainers: Kelly Breen (4 wins), David Geist (1 win), Kevin Fields (0 wins), and David Wells (20 wins).
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I Should Have Won More at the Breeders’ Cup 2011
On the heels of Breeders’ Cup 2011 I have been doing a great deal of thinking about betting strategy. It seems as if I should have won more money than I did.
So, I went back and looked at the BC2011 selections that I posted in my blogs. Not only did I have five winners right on top, but I had four horses that didn’t win but hit the place spot. That is nine out of the fifteen races that could have been profitable.
Should those races have been profitable? The answer came when I hypothetically applied a two dollar win and place wager to each of my picks. In the chart you can see that eight of those nine races would have ended up in the black. For the two days of Breeders’ Cup wagering that would have produced earnings of $36.80 for an ROI of 61%. You can’t get that kind of rate in a savings account.
Of course I did not make a win/place wager on all of my selections. I only made vertical wagers on a few of the races. My second biggest win came on a win/place bet on Amazombie in the the Sprint. Mutuel payouts of $17.80/$7.40 will do that for a bettor.
I did not profit from Caleb’s Posse who paid $15.60 and $7.00 to win and place. Nor did Turallure’s $10.00 place price put money in my pocket. Royal Delta went off at 2-1 and I got nothing from that pick.
How could I have missed those opportunities? It was the lure of the big payout in the horizontal mult-race wagers. Yes, I did collect the most from Friday’s early 50¢ Pick 4 that was anchored by Secret Circle, but there were many other Pick 3, 4, and 5 tickets that drained away the profits.
I know how hard it is to hit these horizontal wagers. I have heard the best handicappers talk about the pitfalls. In Steven Crist’s 2009 DRF dvd, EXOTIC TICKETS, he states, “No matter how good you are at them, playing bets like the pick 4 or pick 6 can really be like riding a roller coaster. You can go weeks, maybe even months, without making a big score.”
It is just so tempting when you see the payouts. On Friday, November 11, at Monmouth Park the 50¢ Pick 5 paid an amazingly large $277 after five favorites won in five very small fields: $7.60 (6 horses), $3.60 (5), $4.80 (5), $4.40 (4), and $5.20 (8). These horizontal wagers often out pay the parlay figures.
My good handicapping in Breeders’ Cup 2011 was not duly rewarded. I need to start relying more on win/place betting and to be far more selective about my exotic wagers.
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Monmouth Wagering Wrap-up
During the Monmouth Park meeting, which began on May 14th, and ended on November 6th, I took on the roll of a public handicapper for one specific wager, the new 50¢ Place Pick 6. This was basically a weekend only meeting that had 67 actual days of racing.
I had never tried to publish selections and keep careful records that were publically posted on a consistent basis. I gained tremendous respect for the people that consider themselves public handicappers. It is very difficult to make a serious and thorough effort to handicap an entire meeting. The Monmouth meeting was probably a bit easier because it was only three days a week. Analyzing Friday was more relaxed because I could get those past performances on Tuesday, but then Saturday and Sunday came right after and without the extra time.
The spreadsheet shows my results for every single day that I played the 50¢ Place Pick 6. The results are based on the exact ticket that I posted in my blog. There were a couple times where that ticket got scratched but I was able to make a betting change and then hit the PP6, but I didn’t include that in my spreadsheet because I did not have a chance to post the change in the blog.
I found the process of figuring out the most effective way to construct a PP6 ticket to be creative and exciting. You can see that for the first 39 days of the meeting I was experimenting with the size of the tickets. Then I settled on the $36 ticket with a structure of: 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 3 x 3. That represents the number of horses I used in each race. Of course the arrangement of those numbers could vary.
You can see that once I stuck with that ticket structure for most days in the second half of the meeting that I hit the wager 10 times. For the entire meeting I was successful 14 times and ended up with a profit of $150. Anytime a public handicapper can end up in the black for a significant number of days that is an impressive accomplishment. I am quite proud of that achievement and that I was able to complete this long-term handicapping task.
The graph shows the range of payout prices for the 50¢ wager for the entire meeting. There was a fairly statistically regular distribution especially from May through August. The largest payouts happened during that time period. On August 27, the highest price of $6,404 occurred followed by payouts of $4,846, $3,390, and $3,065. In September when the summer tourist season ends at the Jersey Shore, the overall handle at Monmouth goes down and so did the PP6 payouts. In the last three months the topper was $1,605 and the payouts began to skew to the smaller prices on the left.
If you think it was easy to hit the Place Pick 6 you should keep in mind that there were four days that produced a carryover pool. On those days nobody could get six consecutive races when they picked a horse to place.
I will be interested to see if the Place Pick 6 returns in 2012. If it does come back I will definitely play the wager again. Next summer I will probably try a new handicapping challenge. If you have any suggestions let me know!
Posted in Monmouth Park, Place Pick 6
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Jane Cibelli – First Woman to Win Monmouth Training Title.
When the Monmouth Park thoroughbred racing meet ended on Sunday, Jane Cibelli became the first woman to ever win the training title at the Jersey Shore track. Her 32 wins were six ahead of Greg Sacco and Scott Volk.
Click here to read the rest of this blog at www.horseracingnation.com.
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Breeders’ Cup Highlights and Monmouth Day 74 – Sunday, November 6, 2011
Breeders’ Cup 2011 is complete and overall it was a much better wagering experience for AndyScoggin than BC 2010. Day 1 had three winners out of the 6 BC races and a 50¢ early Pick 4 that paid $390.
On Day 2 I caught a nice price winner in the Sprint with Amazombie. With a very good win ($17.60) and place ($7.60) bet, the wagering was going well. Amazombie was a flashback to one of my Breeders’ Cup favorites. Elmhurst won the 1997 Sprint with the same type of closing run, while coming out of the same prep race, the Ancient Title at Santa Anita. Yesterday’s pay off was a bit smaller than in 1997 but it was great to score in that same fashion again.
It could have been a great day if Turallure had gotten a nose farther in the Mile. Turallure was a top pick for AndyScoggin and he went off at 13-1 (paying $10.00 to place). He needed only another few inches of racetrack to beat huge long shot Court Vision. I am a bit upset that I did not wheel Turallure up and down in the exacta, as that exotic paid over $1,900.
UPDATE – 5:30pm – I just checked back at my original Breeders’ Cup picks that were made before pre-entries and I had 3 winners: My Miss Aurelia, Secret Circle, and St. Nicholas Abbey. My final 15 BC picks www.horseracingnation.com/BreedersCup2011Selections had 5 winners: Secret Circle, My Miss Aurelia, Royal Delta, Amazombie, and Caleb’s Posse. There were also two very narrow defeats in a row with Union Rags and Turallure.
Bill Mott trained Royal Delta the winner of the Ladies Classic and Drosselmeyer took home the Classic crown. Hall of Famer Mott is an example of everything that is good in racing.
It is supposed to be the last day of racing at Monmouth today, but when I was in the very chilly and unheated press box there was talk of six more days of racing. They have proposed two more Friday, Saturday, Sunday weekends of racing. They need approval from the Governor. The plan is to draw entries for the cards as they await the go ahead.
Either way this will probably be the last day of Place Pick 6 handicapping for the meeting. I will do a write-up of the entire PP6 experience fairly soon. Today there is a carryover as nobody pick six yesterday. Here is today’s play for $32: 3,4 with 7,9 with 6 with 1,3 with 1,4,6,8 with 3,10.
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Saturday, November 5, 2011 – Day 73 and Breeders’ Cup Day 2
Day of the Breeders’ Cup turned out OK. I picked 3 winners out of the six BC races: Secret Circle, My Miss Aurelia, and Royal Delta. That was three favorites, but you have to pick winners. I do not automatically discard all favorites. I discard bad favorites, the ones that are not going to win. I collected a 50¢ ticket on the early Pick 4 for $390.
Today I believe there are favorites to discard. On the top of list is Big Drama. I have to let Big Drama beat me. If he can win this race with virtually no race preparation I will tip my hat to him.
I have two horses at very nice prices that come early in the BC sequence. Eldaafer (10-1) in the Marathon and Animal Spirits (8-1) in the Juvenile Turf. I also like Amazombie (5-1) in the Sprint. That is a three race sequence for BC races 3, 4, 5.
UPDATE – 3:10pm – Back in business after a healthy win on Amazombie ($17.60, $7.60 for win/place) in the Sprint. That is the one horse I have liked since his win in the Ancient Title. Here is a Pick 3 starting in race 6. For 50¢ this is a $24 ticket.
Last play of the Breeders’ is the Late Pick 4. Here is a $72 ticket looking for one of the nice BC payoffs.
I have a $108 Pick 5 play that uses three horses mentioned above.
Just because, here is the Place Pick 6 for Monmouth. It is a standard PP6 ticket for $36: 5,6 with 4,5 with 4,5,6 with 5,6,8 with 2 with 2,3.
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Day 72 – Friday, November 4, 2011 & Breeders’ Cup Day 1
Only three days left in the Monmouth meeting. Post time for today’s eight race card is 12:15pm ET. The Place Pick 6 begins in the third race at 1:05pm ET. The Churchill Downs card does not start until 2:00pm and the Breeders’ Cup races begin at 4:10 ET. There is a 50¢ Pick 5 at CD in races 1-5.
We are riding a two day Place Pick 6 winning streak, so let’s make it three today. The ticket has a different shape today and costs $24. Here is the preliminary PP6 play: 2 with 7(scr),1,11 with 3(scr),8,9 with 2, with 1,4,5,8 with 1,7,9. We were alive into the last leg but finished a closing third behind two long shots to finish with five out of 6.
Today is a day for lots of wagers. I will probably be playing the early Pick 5 at CD, the Pick 5 at MTH, the Breeders’ Cup Pick 4, and of course our PP6 ticket. The best thing is that they are all 50¢ wagers! I will be back with updates throughout the day.
MONMOUTH 50¢ PICK 5 for $36:
1,7(scr),11 with 8,9 with 2,4 with 4,5,6 with 1,7,9. Three out of five in the MTH Pick 5 missing the first and last legs.
CHURCHILL DOWNS 50¢ PICK 5 for $60:
5,8,9 with 6 with 3,5,6,7 with 5,11 with 6
1,6 with 6 with 3,5,6,7 with 5,11 with 6
5,8,9 with 7,9 with 3,5,6,7 with 5,11 with 6
1,6 with 7,9 with 3,5,6,7 with 5,11 with 6
Knocked out of this Pick 5 in leg three and then made an early Pick 4 of:
3,4,5 with 1,5,10,11 with 6 with 4,5,10,12,14 for $30. That “I just got knocked out of the Pick 5” ticket paid $390 for 50¢.
BREEDERS’ CUP 50¢ PICK 4 for $70:
2,3,11,12 with 4,5,9,11,14 with 5 with 1,6,8
2,3,11,12 with 4,5,9,11,14 with 2,5,6,12 with 6
Knocked out of the late Pick 4 so I played a Pick 3 of: 4,9,10 with 2,5,6,12 with 1,2,6,8.
Don’t forget that my full Breeders’ Cup selections are listed in the previous post and at HorseRacingNation.com in my blog.
AndyScoggin in NJ 