Breeders’ Cup 2011 Selections

Posted on November 3, 2011 by andyscoggin

My selections for Breeders’ Cup 2011 focus on the three Pick 4 wagers.  On Friday the Pick 4 begins with the Filly/Mare Sprint and runs through the Ladies Classic. Saturday there are two Pick 4 bets that run back to back skipping the Marathon.

FRIDAY

Juvenile Sprint – Secret Circle – Breeders’ Cup 2011 starts off with a single.  I can’t bet against Baffert in a sprint with a two year-old.  This race is the last leg of the 50¢ Pick 5.

Juvenile Filly Turf – Elusive Kate – If the Euros are that much better on the turf than our horses then Elusive Kate is the best in this race. Somali Lemonade, Stopshoppingmaria, Stephanie’s Kitten, and Dear Lavinia can’t be dimissed.

Pick 4

Filly & Mare Sprint – Turbulent Descent – is my top choice but I will use Pomeroys Pistol as an “A” in the first leg of the Pick 4. Great Hot and Her Smile are backups.

Juvenile Fillies – My Miss Aurelia – I realize that I am quite chalky to start but it is what it is. Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie will be considered top choices on my Pick 4 ticket.  I will back those three up with Miss Netta and Awesome Belle.

Filly & Mare Turf – Nahrain – Now I am off the favorite here with this undefeated Euro monster.  Potential WPS bet if above 5-2. Nahrain will be the only “A” in this leg of the Pick 4.  Announce, Misty For Me, and Stacelita will be use as “B”s.

Ladies’ Classic – Royal Delta – The word is that Royal Delta has been training up to the BC better than anyone in any race. Miss Match and Plum Pretty have a place in the Pick 4.

SATURDAY

Marathon – Eldaafer – The Monmouth based runner has been aimed all season for this race that he won last year.  He blazed in his last work at the Shore.  This one will be a great price and should be bet WPS.

Early Pick 4
Juvenile Turf – Animal Spirits – gets my nod at 8-1 and should be a WPS bet. Stall knows how to win the big one.  Finale and State of Play will be top choices in the early Pick 4.  Fantastic Song and Lucky Chappy will be used in the Pick 4 as backups.

Sprint – Amazombie – This horse was my Best Bet of the Day until Jackson Bend opted for the Sprint, but I will leave him as my top choice.  I will use Jackson Bend and Euroears as “A”s in the Pick 4.

Turf Sprint – Havelock – Love his last race and he knows how to win these short sprints. Hoofit and Regally Ready will be used in leg 3 of this Pick 4.

Dirt Mile – Caleb’s Posse – The Indiana Derby was not the goal for this horse.  Two turns is not his thing.  The one turn mile will suit him perfectly.  Wilburn will be included on my multi-race tickets.

Late Pick 4

Turf – Sea Moon – This one has never run a bad race even with a horrible trip last time and he is trained by the master of this race Michael Stoute.  As the Late Pick 4 starts I have to include Sarafina, Await the Dawn, and Midday.

Juvenile – Union Rags –  I love the horsemanship of Michael Matz and this horse has been so impressive.  Only other horse I will include is longshot Fort Loudon.  Didn’t a 2YO filly from Calder win big last year?

Mile – Turallure – Leparoux on the Kentucky turf with a horse that has run two great races. Of course I will be routing for Goldikova to win her fourth.

Classic – Flat Out – This Monmouth Park runner has been so tough and so determined to win. It feels like everything is aligning for this horse.  I think the mile and a quarter is not the best distance for Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo.  You all know how much I like Mo.  I will use both of them on my Pick 4 ticket along with Stay Thirsty, So You Think, and To Honour and Serve.

Posted in Breeders Cup, Monmouth Park | Leave a comment

It’s Breeders’ Cup Week – Let’s Have Some Fun!

Posted on November 1, 2011 by andyscoggin

Breeders’ Cup week is the greatest week in horse racing.  On Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs the best horses are running in the best races with the best jockeys.  The Breeders’ Cup produces some of the biggest parimutuel payouts and the wagering menu offers something for everybody.  There are 10¢ superfectas, 50¢ trifectas, and 50¢ Pick 4’s and Pick 5’s. These low minimums give all of us a chance to go after the big money.

Aside from handicapping and developing my betting strategy for the weekend I am involved in a few really fun activities.  You can join in some of them or just follow AndyScoggin in the others.

•Here is my latest Point/Counterpoint on  HorseRacingNation.com/PointCounterpoint. This third debate with HRN Managing Editor, Brian Zipse addresses the question, “Which jockey will win the most races in Breeders’ Cup 2011?” I chose Julien Leparoux and Brian selected Javier Castellano.

Picking who will be the leading rider in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup is a daunting task. Keep in mind that Pat Day is the leading money winner in Breeders’ Cup history with over $23,000,000 in earnings but he won with only .10 of his mounts. Jerry Bailey won 15 Breeders’ Cup races, the most ever, and he was victorious at only a .15 rate. Mike Smith has the best winning percentage and that is .18. Winners are very hard to come by in the Breeders’ Cup.  Click on the link above to read the whole debate.

•Join in the Breeders’ Cup Survivor pool at  www.horseracingnation.com  through Brian Zipse’s blog.  By the way, AndyScoggin is the defending champion. I will post my entry on Friday.

•The final three days of the Monmouth meeting for the Place Pick 6.

Posted in Breeders Cup, Horse Racing Nation, Monmouth Park, Place Pick 6 | Leave a comment

Ruler On Ice Looking to Rule the Classic

Posted on October 31, 2011 by andyscoggin

I recently helped HorseRacingNation.com friend and colleague Joe DePaolo with an article for the Breeders’ Cup website about Breeders’ Cup Classic entrant Ruler On Ice.  Ruler On Ice is the Monmouth Park based runner who won the Belmont Stakes for New Jersey owners George and Lori Hall and trainer Kelly Breen.

Of the 13 horses who are slated to start in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, only Ruler On Ice captured a Triple Crown race in 2011 — capturing the Belmont Stakes (G1) back in June. In many years, winners of Triple Crown races generally rank among the leading contenders in the Classic. But Ruler On Ice’s chances to win are considered slim by many — including Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, who made the Roman Ruler colt 30-1 on his morning line.

Click here, Ruler On Ice Looking to Rule the Classic, to read the rest of the article on Breederscup.com.

Posted in Breeders Cup, Horse Racing Nation, Monmouth Park, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Day 71 – Sunday, October 30, 2011

Posted on October 30, 2011 by andyscoggin

The storm did not seem to be nearly as bad at Monmouth Park as it was a mere 30 minutes north and inland at my house.  This morning the track is already good, so I guess it would be a great day to go Monmouth.  Here is today’s $36 Place Pick 6 ticket: 1,2 with 4,8,9 with 5,6 with 1,3,6 with 2 with 4,5.  Keep in mind that today is an eight race card so the PP6 begins in race 3. Belmont has cancelled the last card of their Fall Championship Meeting, so Monmouth as the action today.

UPDATE – 4:45pm – Two in a row for AndyScoggin.  Some better prices in today’s PP6 yielded a payoff of $71.45.  That is the 14th time that AndyScoggin has hit the PP6 at Monmouth and second time hitting two in a row. Today’s $35.45 profit brings the total for the meeting to +$242.

Yesterday marked the 13th time we hit the Place Pick 6 at Monmouth.  With yesterday’s profit of $82.40 AndyScoggin is guaranteed to be in the black for the entire meeting.  That is an accomplishment of which I am quite proud.  Not an easy thing to do with a multi-race  wager.  Hopefully we can hit at least once more.  To the left is the spreadsheet that shows all of the PP6 wagers from this summer/fall.

Posted in Monmouth Park, Place Pick 6, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Day 70 – Saturday, October 29, 2011

Posted on October 29, 2011 by andyscoggin

Here’s the $24 ticket for Place Pick 6: 1,3,7 with 5,6 with 2,3 with 3,6 with 6 with 2,4.

UPDATE – 3:58pm ET – There were accelerated post times at Monmouth today and they managed to safely get the card run.  One of our horses in race 7 was scratched so the ticket cost only $12.  We hit the PP6 which paid $11.80 but we had it eight times. That means we hit three exactas in the sequence:  race 4 ($9.20), race 6 ($26.20), and race 9 ($16.60).  For a $12 bet we collected $94.40 and earned a profit of $82.40.  That insures that the Place Pick 6 performance for the entire meeting will be in the black.

The weather is just insane in Central Jersey.  Trees still have leaves and the weight of the wet snow on the leaves is causing large branches to snap off with an eerie splitting noise. The tree in front of our house along the road has snapped 4 or 5 times already. The biggest branch somehow surrounded one of our cars but missed damaging it.

The good news is that the cable line is still up and is probably in a safe location. Internet and TVG seem to be out of harm’s way.

Posted in Monmouth Park, Place Pick 6, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Day 69 – Friday, October 28, 2011

Posted on October 28, 2011 by andyscoggin

The track is currently muddy at Monmouth Park, but it is sunny and will probably dry out by the time the Place Pick 6 starts today in race 3. The ticket has a smaller size and a different shape today with singles in the last two legs.  In race 7 Uptowncharlybrown has opted to run at Monmouth instead of the Saturday stake at Belmont, so we will single him. Gracefully Mean seems to be the lone speed in a rather unimpressive group of New Jersey-bred two year-olds.  Let’s play the PP6 today for a mere $18:  4,5,7 with 4,8 with 4,8 with 3,5,6 with 6 with 4.

UPDATE – 5:10pm – Our ticket was scratched out when Uptowncharlybrown did not run.  He was not on the early scratches on http://www.monmouthpark.com, so I did not revise the play. But nobody Place Picked 6 and there is a very small carryover of  $1,571.97 into a very rainy Saturday card.

The weather looks awful for tomorrow with rain and snow in the morning.  Who knows what that will mean for racing.  Never mind, I just checked again and now the forecast says rain and only rain.

Next weekend post time for the first race at Monmouth changes to 12:15pm ET.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

What’s Next for Rapid Redux?

Posted on October 27, 2011 by andyscoggin

The five year-old gelding Rapid Redux tied the North American record of 19 consecutive victories.  Rapid Redux now shares that record with 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta and the retired New Mexico-bred Peppers Pride.

Everyone knows Zenyatta’s fame and how she won the first 19 races of her career and lost only once as she tried to win consecutive Breeders’ Cup Classics.  The mare Peppers Pride ran only in New Mexico state-bred races and never lost a race in her career. Rapid Redux took 10 months and 25 days to win 19 in a row.  Zenyatta needed 2 years, 11 months, and 10 days to get to 19 victories. Peppers Pride reached the 19 wins in 3 years, 4 months, and 29 days.

Of Zenyatta’s 19 victories 17 came in grade one or grade two stakes and she earned $7,304,580 in her career.  Peppers Pride won 14 state-bred stakes races and $1,066,085. Rapid Redux ran in the Tyro at Monmouth Park as a two year-old and the Long Brach at three and he finished last in both. He has career earnings of $332,544.

Rapid Redux toils in racing’s claiming ranks having been taken for $6,250 by current owner Robert Cole.  Turned over to trainer David Wells he has gone on to win 19 of 20 starts for them.  That is the life of the claiming horse.  Rapid Redux has run for three other trainers in his career.  In his winning streak he has won with 5, 8, 9, 10, and 13 days between some of his races.  The most rest between races was a little over a month.

His 19th consecutive win came on a muddy sealed track at Laurel, which is one of seven different tracks at which he has run.  Rapid Redux ran the seven furlongs in 1:24.07, which is one of seven different distances at which he has run.

photo from Laurel race video

Since her retirement Peppers Pride has been bred to the fashionable stallions Tiznow and Distorted Humor at WinStar Farm in Kentucky.  Zenyatta now lives at Lane’s End Farm and is in foal to Bernardini.

No doubt Rapid Redux will try for his 20th record breaking consecutive win. Owner Cole said, “There seems to be a lot of spots in the next couple of weeks. I’m not sure where we go. We really have got to space out three or four weeks.”

So where does Rapid Redux go after his racing days are over?  Cole seems to be thinking about that, “I’d love to break the record and have the Kentucky Horse Park invite him there to retire.”  Sounds like a great plan!

Posted in Monmouth Park, Rapid Redux | Leave a comment

Charting the Breeders’ Cup

Posted on October 25, 2011 by andyscoggin

This is a preview of an article on HorseRacingNation.com, Charting the Breeders’ Cup. You can read the complete article by clicking on the link at the end of this preview

In 1984, the Breeders’ Cup began with seven races: Classic, Distaff, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Mile, Turf, and the Sprint. In 2011, there will be 15 races over two days. The race order for Saturday is: Marathon, Juvenile Turf, Sprint, Turf Sprint, Juvenile, Mile, Dirt Mile, Turf, and Classic. Of the original seven races only five will be contested on Saturday, which is the day for races designated for colts and geldings. The final four races on Saturday will make up a $1.5 million dollar guaranteed pick four. The sequence is the Mile, the Dirt Mile in its fifth year, the Turf, and the Classic.

These charts for the original Breeders’ Cup races include information about the past winners: win payout, track, exacta and trifecta prices, and trainer. Averages are calculated for all of the payouts and European grass winners are marked.

Facts and Figures for the Mile

 The Mile is the race of repeat winners.  Of course the mare Goldikova has won the last three Miles and goes for a fourth in 2011. Olivier Presslier and Freddy Head are the trainer and rider for Goldikova’s wins.  Da Hoss (1996, 1998), Lure (1992, 1993), and Miesque (1987,1988) have won twice.  The Niarchos Family has won the Mile five times.  The Europeans have won the Mile 13 of the 27 races.

Ten favorites have been victorious for an average price of $16.29.  The biggest two dollar exacta ($1,496) and trifecta ($12,495) payouts came in 2004, when Singletary paid $35.00 to win.

Read the rest of the article at HorseRacingNation.com.  Click here —> Charting the_Breeders_Cup

Posted in Breeders Cup, Horse Racing Nation, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Day 68 – Sunday, October 23, 2011

Posted on October 23, 2011 by andyscoggin

One of the many great things about handicapping is that there is always another day and today is Day 68.  Fresh off of two five out of six performances in the Place Pick 6 AndyScoggin is ready to nail it today.  Today the play is back to the standard $36 ticket with a single, three doubles, and two triples:  1,5,10 with 6 with 3,4 with 4,5,6 with 5,10 with 3,5. There is a nine race card at Monmouth today, so the PP 6 covers races four to nine.

UPDATE – 8:45pm – It was a long shot day in the PP 6 sequence that included 17-1, 6- 1, 9-1, 7-1, another 6-1, a third 6-1, and a 122-1 horse finding place spots.  The PP 6 paid $769 for the 50¢ bet. Our ticket only placed in three out six legs.

HorseRacingNation.com is cranking up its Breeders Cup coverage over the next two weeks so be sure to visit.  In addition to my recent articles on the Breeders’ Cup Top 10 Sprints and Cigar’s Classic 1995 Breeders’ Cup, I will have some new work up at HRN.com this week.

Posted in Breeders Cup, Horse Racing Nation, Monmouth Park, Place Pick 6 | Leave a comment

Day 67 – Saturday, October 22, 2011

Posted on October 22, 2011 by andyscoggin

The Place Pick 6 sequence for this Saturday is one of the toughest in the past month or so.  It was really hard for me to find a single, thus the ticket will stray from our standard configuration and go 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2. That play will cost $32.  Here is the pre-scratch ticket: 2,9 with 4,5 with 6,7 with 2,4 with 2,7 with 4,6.  I am probably not going to be able to post any changes because I have a really busy day out of the house.  There may be some scratches because there a lot of horses entered from Parx today.  Accordingly this would be the secondary ticket: 2 with 4,5 with 6,7 with 2,4,6 with 2,7 with 4,6,8 or some combination of the two.

UPDATE – 5:20pm – There was a key scratch of the #4 in race 5 or leg 2 of the PP6, so I combined the primary and secondary tickets into 2,9 with 5 with 6,7 with 2,4,6 with 2,7 with 4,6,8. That ticket produced five out of six again including two exactas in leg four ($31.20) and leg six ($72.00) that could have meant 4 winning tickets. A third place finish in the fifth leg knocked us out. That is two consecutive days with five out of six and a third place as the eliminator.

GOOD LUCK!

Posted in Monmouth Park, Place Pick 6, Uncategorized | Leave a comment